The Limits of Numerical Probability: Frank H. Knight and Ludwig von Mises and the Frequency Interpretation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52195/pm.v3i2.337Abstract
In the following I will (1) briefly restate the principles of the fre-quency interpretation of probability as originally formulated by Richard von Mises; (2) show why Frank H. Knight and Ludwig von Mises must be considered frequency theorists; and (3) discuss and evaluate the arguments provided by F. H. Knight and L. v. Mises against the possibility of applying probability theory in the area of economic forecasting (whether on the micro or the macro level).
Key words: probability theory, economic forecasting, frequency distribution.
Clasificación JEL: B41, B53.
Resumen: En este trabajo, 1) volveré a plantear brevemente los principios de la interpretación frecuencialista de la probabilidad tal y como fueron formulados originalmente por Richard von Mises; 2) mostraré por qué Frank H. Knight y Ludwig von Mises deben ser considerados teóricos de la interpretación frecuencialista, y 3) discutiré y evaluaré los argumentos proporcionados por F. H. Knight y L. v. Mises en contra de la posibilidad de aplicar la teoría de la probabilidad en el área de la previsión económica (ya sea a nivel microeconómico o macroeconómico).
Palabras clave: teoría de la probabilidad, previsión económica, distribución de frecuencias.
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