La théorie autrichienne des cycles: une théorie de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52195/pm.v1i2.368Abstract
This paper offers an account of the recent development of Austrian Trade Cycle Theory. It focus on the theoretical contributions and argues that the Austrian’s explanation of Trade Cycle is a theory of collective errors of expectations and of their recurrences. Austrian economists agree to explain the errors of individuals by the nationalization of money because it leads to an excess of money supply. Nevertheless, they disagree about the cause of this excess. Two explanations have been suggested. The first one measures the excess in relation with the demand of money. The second one evaluates the excess in relation with monetary saving. They agree, on the contrary, on the reasons of the recurrence of expectation errors and their uniformity. The theory of property rights explains the recurrence of expectation errors by the socialization of risk. The expectation theory explains the collective errors by the centralisation of expectations (big player hypothesis) on the central bank decisions. Therefore, the centralization of expectations explains the instability of market process.
Keywords: cycle, expectations, property rights, central banking, free banking and error
Classification JEL: E32, E58,
Resume: Cet article présente les développements récents de la théorie autrichienne des cycles. Il se concentre sur les apports théoriques et soutient que désormais la théorie autrichienne des cycles est une théorie plurielle de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation. Les économistes autrichiens s’accordent pour penser que la nationalisation de la monnaie est à l’origine de l’excès d’offre de monnaie qui crée une distorsion de la structure des taux d’intérêt des prêts et induit la phase de récession. Ils s’entendent aussi sur les raisons de la récurrence des erreurs d’anticipation et sur leur uniformité. La théorie des droits de propriété explique la récurrence des erreurs d’anticipation par la socialisation des risques. La théorie des anticipations explique les erreurs collectives par la centralisation des anticipations autour des décisions de la banque centrale et rend compte ainsi de l’instabilité des systèmes économiques. Les économistes autrichiens se divisent, en revanche, sur les raisons de cet excès d’offre de monnaie. Il y a ceux qui soutiennent que cet excès d’offre se mesure par rapport à l’épargne monétaire et s’explique par la pratique des réserves fractionnaires (école de la libre circulation). Il y a ceux, au contraire, qui estiment que cet excès doit être mesuré par rapport à la demande de monnaie et expliqué par l’absence de concurrence entre les monnaies (école de la banque libre).
Mots clés: cycles, anticipations, droits de propriété, banque centrale, banque libre et erreur
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